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The time has come, the walrus said, for Ford to finalise plans for the Falcon wagon's future. While the coming BFIII Falcon wagon upgrade buys Ford some much needed time to assess the future of its large family wagon in the context of Holden's new Sportwagon, the arrival of new V6 engines and the final Euro IV compliance date in mid-2010 will soon dictate a more comprehensive Falcon wagon upgrade.

Upbeat Ford dealers are reporting that the new Mondeo diesel sedan and hatch are generating unprecedented interest, a situation not yet showing up in sales figures when supply is still an issue. Ford's recent Motor Show preview of the Mondeo wagon, with a new diesel that is significantly more powerful than the existing sedan and hatchback versions', is part of a Ford wagon agenda that goes way beyond the Mondeo range.

Will there be a new Falcon wagon?

"Still under review" is the typical Ford response. The most likely scenario is that there was an FG Falcon wagon ready to go but exactly what it should do and where it fits in today's market are no longer so clear.  If Ford delivers a Falcon wagon closer to Holden's new Sportwagon, will it be too close to the Mondeo wagon previewed this week?

Ford's official position on the Mondeo wagon provides a clue: "Show attendees' reaction to the display model will be a large influencer on our decision to possibly introduce the Mondeo TDCi wagon as part of the permanent line-up."

Replace Mondeo TDCi with Falcon in this statement to reveal the full impact of the dilemma Ford's product planners are currently facing.

Anyone who sees the new Mondeo wagon on display will be impressed by its size and style. In practical terms, it will swallow the same number of passengers with two thirds of the cargo space of Holden's Sportwagon -- without the carbon footprint and fuel costs.

"The turbo-diesel engine in the Mondeo wagon is a new torque-oozing 2.2-litre powerplant, delivering 129 kilowatts, 400 Newton metres and exceptional fuel economy," to quote from Ford's press release. This compares to the base Holden Sportwagon's 180kW/330Nm and its High Output engine's 195kW/340Nm. 

More significantly, the torque figure of the diesel Mondeo wagon even exceeds the 391Nm of the latest FG Falcon engine. Although power is well short of the FG Falcon's 195kW, torque is exactly what's needed to make a good load lugger -- and a more frugal one. 

Although the Mondeo wagon's luggage capacity of 535 litres with the seats up and "a whopping 1733 litres with the rear passenger row of seats folded flat" are impressive for a medium wagon, neither is anywhere near enough for it to step into Holden's new Sportwagon shoes let alone those of the Falcon wagon.

Although Holden has yet to release an official seats-up figure for the Sportwagon, initial calculations place it at close to 900 litres while an official 2000-litre folded flat capacity has now been confirmed by Holden.

This is the one area that is making Ford's future plans difficult.

The current Falcon wagon offers no less than 1254 litres of cargo space before the rear seats are folded or at least 30 per cent more than Holden's Sportwagon. The Falcon's rear seats-down capacity is a whopping 2584 litres with the length to match it. This also provides a useful lead over the Sportwagon.

All the wishful thinking in the world will not close a gap this large between the Mondeo and Falcon wagons.

There just simply isn't another affordable passenger wagon with the heavy duty leaf spring rear suspension, rear drive, cargo volume and towing capacity with the Falcon's power and economy balance (along with the option of E-Gas) to match the current Falcon wagon. With a diesel option, it could prove invincible.

Can Ford evolve the BF Wagon into a BFIV in 2010 and get away with it? Will a Mondeo diesel wagon satisfy the Falcon wagon's patched-on fleet buyers? Will the demise of a Commodore work wagon increase sales of a work-oriented Falcon Wagon? Or will the extra style of the Commodore Sportwagon cost the Falcon wagon sales?

After Ford's own Territory failed to kill off the Falcon wagon as expected, this is all uncharted. Has the time come for Ford to bite the bullet, build a new independent rear suspension frame for its wagon and utility range and bring both vehicles up to date? Or is the work niche so strong that the leaf spring rear ends under the current wagon and ute are a unique selling point?

It is not only the Mondeo planning group that will be monitoring Melbourne Motor Show response to the new Mondeo wagon this week, those responsible for the Falcon wagon are also acutely interested.

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