A new report prepared by the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) is the second shot in a double-tap to the head for the average Australian.
Some are still recovering from the winds of change presaged in the Climate Change Review prepared by Professor Ross Garnaut and now Australians are being told in essence that oil is very much a finite resource and it will never again be as cheap as it has been.
The report ('Fuel for Thought -- the future of transport fuels: challenges and opportunities') was prepared by the Future Fuels Forum, a delegation overseen by John Wright of the CSIRO, but populated by representatives from conservation groups, the oil industry, motoring associations, state governments, Holden and other lobby groups.
In the report, the forum acknowledges that dwindling oil supplies and the consequent rising prices will drive change for the better. The forum anticipates that electricity, natural gas and LPG will be increasingly popular alternatives to petrol and diesel.
During the press conference at which the report was presented, Monica Richter, Sustainable Australia Program Manager for the Australian Conservation Foundation anticipated that the 14 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions currently attributed to road transport in Australia would rise to 30 per cent by 2020. That presumes that thousands of current car owners don't just park the car when fuel reaches the price of $8 per litre two years earlier -- another scenario put forward.
It's likely, according to the report, that biofuels will hit their stride from 2020, although Bruce Harrison of the Biofuels Association of Australia announced during the press conference for the report that a member of the association based in Victoria was already growing algae as a source of biodiesel and was currently engaged in a "commercialisation" process.
"They hope to produce reasonable quantities of biodiesel from algae over the next two to three years," he said.
The stumbling block for biofuels up to this point has been their dependency on food crops, but "second generation" biofuels can be produced from non-edible vegetable matter.
A point made in the report concerns Australia's high level of road transport use. This makes the country very vulnerable to an economic downturn through the inflationary pressures resulting from higher oil costs -- and the country's domestic reserves of fossil fuels are declining at a rapid rate, adding to the inflationary effect.
The forum calls on greater government intervention, on the basis that individuals and businesses are likely to be reactive to the problem, rather than proactive. Among other things governments could be doing to alleviate the problem, the public transport system could be extended and upgraded in capital cities and commuters should be encouraged to use public transport much more than they are currently.
In a worst case scenario, the authors of the report say, freight and passenger transport will need to be reduced by as much as 40 per cent. Individuals can make a difference if they are more selective in how they use the car and what sort of vehicle they choose to operate.
Taking a brave stand at the press conference, Holden's Managing Director, Mark Reuss (pictured), was upbeat at the press conference, despite the grave nature of the information being presented. Citing the company's move towards an alternative fuel strategy for the Commodore large car, he described the next few years as "A transformational time for Holden and the automotive industry".
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